Elfstedentocht on natural ice becomes rare: The route remains
Summary
The chance of an Elfstedentocht on natural ice is steadily decreasing due to warmer winters. Climate models show that the skating tour will remain rare, but the historic Elfstedentocht route is still fully accessible, especially as a cycling tour through Friesland. This does not mean the end of the Elfstedentocht. The iconic route along the eleven Frisian cities remains alive and can be experienced year-round as a cycling tour, allowing more and more people to discover Friesland, with or without ice.
The likelihood of the Netherlands experiencing another Elfstedentocht on natural ice is steadily decreasing. While the historic tour occurred regularly in the last century, recent data show that this iconic speed skating event is increasingly under pressure. At the same time, the way people experience the Elfstedentocht is changing: it is no longer limited to the ice but is increasingly explored along the same historic route by bicycle.
Warmer winters, lower chances of natural ice
At the beginning of the 20th century, the probability of an Elfstedentocht was around 20 percent per year, roughly once every five years. Today, average winter temperatures in the Netherlands are more than two degrees higher. As a result, the chance of sufficiently thick natural ice has dropped to about 8 percent annually.
Short periods of frost may still bring hope, but in practice, they often prove insufficient for safely completing the entire course.
What do climate models say about the future?
Climate models indicate that the Netherlands will continue to warm through 2100. Depending on the level of climate action, projected temperature increases range from 0.8 to 3 degrees Celsius. Combined with ice growth models for the Elfstedentocht route, researchers have calculated the likelihood of sufficient ice in the future.
The conclusion is clear: with moderate to high greenhouse gas emissions, the probability of an Elfstedentocht on natural ice will be nearly zero by the end of this century. Only in a low-emission scenario does a small but stable chance remain.
The Elfstedentocht remains, even without ice
As the classic skating tour becomes increasingly uncertain, interest is growing in alternative ways to experience it. The historic route along the eleven Frisian cities retains its significance when explored by bicycle.
According to Sytze, owner of Friesland Holland Travel, the appeal goes beyond sport:
“The Elfstedentocht represents landscape, history, and culture. That story remains, even if the ice is absent.”
Who is the Elfstedentocht cycling tour For?
The Elfstedentocht cycling tour is ideal for those who want to explore Friesland regardless of harsh winters. Recreational cyclists, culture and nature enthusiasts, and those seeking a relaxed pace can follow the iconic route past lakes, terps, historic city centers, and distinctive villages.
For those seeking only the thrill of natural ice and mass start events, waiting for a traditional skating tour remains the only option—but that chance continues to decline over the years.
Practical information about the route
The Elfstedentocht route can be cycled in multiple stages and is suitable for all seasons. Accommodation, route planning, and logistics are essential components for a smooth experience.
Friesland Holland Travel positions itself as the specialist travel agency for a holiday in Friesland, focusing specifically on Elfstedentocht cycling tours. Sytze guides numerous visitors along the full route each year.
A living heritage in motion
After twenty years without an Elfstedentocht on natural ice, the chairmanship of the Royal Association De Friesche Elf Steden recently passed from Wiebe Wieling to Jan Bakker. The hope for another “It giet oan” endures, while the heritage evolves with the times.
Whether the Elfstedentocht will still be regularly skated on natural ice this century is uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the Elfstedentocht remains an experience, on ice when possible, or otherwise along the same route by bicycle, guided by the expertise of Friesland Holland Travel.
Friesland Holland Travel
The Elfstedentocht is part of Friesland Holland Travel’s full range of cycling holidays, making them the specialist for Elfstedentocht cycling routes. Learn more or plan your own tour:
🌐 www.frieslandhollandtravel.nl
✉️ info@frieslandhollandtravel.com
The link to the KNMI article can be found here.
